Critical Thinking 101 - Emotion and Hope, or Fact and Experience?

Critical Thinking 101 – Emotion and Hope, or Fact and Experience?

One of these analogies will drive the point home for you. One of them will crystallize a concept in a way that even eloquent rhetoric cannot camouflage. In each case, the lesson is the same: You may choose on the basis of emotion or fact – on the basis of current words and fickle emotions, or on the basis of “the best predictor of future action is past action.”

The Surgeon

You have a brain tumor. You go to a several experts for a variety of diagnoses, prognoses, and recommendations. You’re still young, you have a wonderful family, and they need you for years to come. You need the best care possible. You must decide whom to trust with your life.

Surgeon #1 has seen your condition many times. He has the hospital’s highest success rate. He teaches at the medical school; his lectures are accurate, though not fascinating. The neurosurgery book he wrote is on many other surgeons’ desks. He gets calls from other surgeons from around the world for recommendations on their most difficult cases. New surgeons study under him for months before trying to become neurosurgeons at their local hospitals. Even Surgeon #1’s fellow doctors (who are also his competitors) say they would choose him to operate if a family member had this tumor. He is older, nearing retirement, and his bedside manner is just OK. He’s humble but confident. Surgeon #1 recommends his technique for your surgery.

Surgeon #2 is right out of medical school. He hasn’t operated yet, but he speed-read all the books and got A’s on the exams. When faced with a difficult situation, he calls his professors and goes with their consensus. He’s handsome, and his speaking style is so eloquent and produces such confidence in his audience that the hospital has already made Surgeon #2 their main persuasive speaker at fund raisers and in court. His bedside manner is inspiring, his voice soothing, and he always fills his prospective patients with a joyful hope. He’s never been in the midst of a medical emergency, and has never performed an operation. His bedside manner is the most inspiring and hopeful, though he seems a little arrogant. Surgeon #2 recommends a different operation for you.

It’s time to pick your surgeon. It’s the most important decision you and your family have faced. Emotionally, you want to choose the inspiring Surgeon #2.Whom do you choose, and why?

The Pilot

Your commercial flight has a big problem. The pilot and copilot are both incapacitated with severe food poisoning. They can’t fly. You are the airline’s CEO, seated in first class with your entire extended family; spouse, children, grandchildren, and even two pregnant moms. You’re not a pilot, but you know you have onboard two passengers who are pilots. They are current and qualified in this type of aircraft. As your crew became ill, they told you the situation: Engine #1 is on fire, and must be dealt with before it burns into the wing. Fuel is running low. Weather at the destination is bad: heavy storms, strong crosswinds, and an icy runway. An airborne nightmare; a successful outcome is difficult with even the best pilot in charge.

Pilot #1 works for your competitor, flying the exact type of aircraft on the same route. He’s older, about to retire, and has the reputation of being a gray-haired, cranky curmudgeon. He also is the chief flight instructor. He literally wrote the book. His leadership is so good that your airline “borrows” his ideas and decisions, and is better for it. He was an Air Force fighter pilot with a chest full of decorations for his valor and flying skill. He gets the impossible job done, every time. Then, he had another lifetime of experiences and superb judgment in his current airline job. He’s applied the experience for which he’s so famous to many inflight emergencies, including your current problems. He’s actually flown this route in this type aircraft into worse weather many times in the past few years.

Pilot #2 works for your company. In fact, he’s your newest, youngest pilot, who was hired as a favor to your CFO (Pilot #2’s uncle). His only previous experience is flying Cessna 150s in good weather, with an experienced instructor pilot sitting alongside with advice. He is brilliant; he whizzed through ground school with high grades on every written test. In his flight training, he was adept at applying already-written rules to mundane problems – that’s easy copilot work. But he could not grasp Captain work – he could not take charge of a surprise situation not covered by written rules, and use shrewd judgment and a lifetime of experience to find a safe solution. He always had to ask his instructors for advice. However, his instructors noticed his speaking ability; they want him to get some flying experience for a few years, and then come back to the schoolhouse as a fellow instructor. His ability to explain and speak in class is easily his strongest asset.

You’re out of time. You must put one of the pilots in the Captain seat and save your family, the other passengers, and innocent people on the ground. Your initial hope is to choose your own company’s pilot, #2, not the competitor’s pilot, #1. Whom do you choose, and why?

The Man in the Truck

You have one child; a wonderful 18 year old daughter. She’s lovely, cautious, intelligent, and full of life. You all cried tears of joy, hope, and concern when she got in her car and ventured out for her first solo road trip out of state; leaving for college. When you return home from a long walk, you hear a telephone message from your daughter: “My car broke down on a country road away from any city or house. It’s getting dark and cold and rainy. I’m afraid to stay here overnight. My cell phone battery is dead; I’m using the cell phone of a man who stopped to offer me a ride. I need advice. Actually, two different men in two pickup trucks have each stopped, and both are offering a ride to town.”

“Man #1 is older. I’m using his cell phone. He’s the local sheriff, about to retire as. He showed me his badge, and had me call the local county sheriff office to verify his identity. And, he told me to give them his truck license plate number, driver’s license number, and his description, so I’d feel safe. The office says he’s their local hero for risking his life to rescue people his whole career. He wants to take me back to the town I just passed, to the sheriff office, even though it’s not the direction I want to go. He seems gruff; he reminds me of Grandpa. He’s short on words, and quick to correct things that are wrong. He seems strong and safe. “

“Man #2 is really young. He’s soooo handsome. I really like him; he’s so friendly and he smiles at me all the time. I think he likes me, too. His voice is even smoother than our Pastor’s. He says his cell phone is dead, too, so we can’t check him out with his office. But, his truck is brand new, he’ll buy me dinner, and he’s decided to turn his truck around and go my direction. He says he’ll drive me all the way to college tonight, and you can send someone else for my car. He’s so exciting!”

“Mom, Dad … Who should I trust? ”

Your daughter is excited by Man #2. Whom do you hope she choses, and why?

There are times to decide things based on first impressions, on emotion, on hope. Those are enjoyable times and fun decisions. Life is wonderful because it includes such events.

There are other decisions that must be divorced from emotion, and based on fact and proven ability. Those are serious, vital choices with long term consequences. Life is worthwhile because it includes such decisions.

Words, hope, and emotion do not predict future behavior.

Facts and past performance do predict future behavior.

What should we use to elect a President at a time of war, terrorism, and economic turmoil, with the future of the country hanging in balance? Words and emotion, or facts and past behavior? You’re welcome to feel emotion; it’s a wonderful part of humanity. But, did you let any glimmer of emotion or hope or likability enter into your Presidential voting decision? Did you go online, read books, and actually check the facts and past performance of each Party and each candidate, or just believe a media which admits it’s biased by its own emotions? Did you educate yourself? When you heard a candidate speak, could you have stopped the tape to correct their mistakes and exaggerations, could you remind them of the history of the subject, could you point out when they change their story for their audience, could you notice when they avoided the question? Did you do your homework? Were you worthy of casting a vote? Was your voting process the same process you want to teach your children to use in life’s most important decisions? The question is not whether your Party passed or failed on election day in 2004 or 2008. The question is not whether you were happy or hopeful with your choice. The question is whether you passed or failed Critical Thinking 101.